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History Rhymes
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. This is why I think Hilary Clinton is our next President, absent getting caught in bed with a live girl or a dead boy.
First, as has been said by many people, the electoral map for Republicans is not good. They are in the hole from the word go, and Trump is not showing much signs of getting out of the hole.
But I think the real impact is The Reagan Effect. I've compared Obama to Reagan before, and the comparison makes this look a lot like the election of 1988.
In 1988, Reagan was personally quite popular, despite Iran-Contra. Reagan's Vice President, Bush the Elder, ran on a very explicit platform of "more of the same." (Too explicit, as those who remember the Saturday Night Live skit can attest.) In 2016, we see Obama, personally quite popular with no scandals, smiling beneficently on his Secretary of State, who is running on a "more of the same but slightly different" platform. It's not 2000, where a sitting Vice President tried to run away from a scandal-plagued (although again personally popular) President.
Don't get me wrong - Hilary still needs to get her people to the polls, and this will be a 55 / 45 popular vote at best, but history is on her side.
First, as has been said by many people, the electoral map for Republicans is not good. They are in the hole from the word go, and Trump is not showing much signs of getting out of the hole.
But I think the real impact is The Reagan Effect. I've compared Obama to Reagan before, and the comparison makes this look a lot like the election of 1988.
In 1988, Reagan was personally quite popular, despite Iran-Contra. Reagan's Vice President, Bush the Elder, ran on a very explicit platform of "more of the same." (Too explicit, as those who remember the Saturday Night Live skit can attest.) In 2016, we see Obama, personally quite popular with no scandals, smiling beneficently on his Secretary of State, who is running on a "more of the same but slightly different" platform. It's not 2000, where a sitting Vice President tried to run away from a scandal-plagued (although again personally popular) President.
Don't get me wrong - Hilary still needs to get her people to the polls, and this will be a 55 / 45 popular vote at best, but history is on her side.