chris_gerrib: (Default)
chris_gerrib ([personal profile] chris_gerrib) wrote2012-03-09 10:04 am

Link Salad, Friday Edition

I had my first session with my personal trainer yesterday. (She looks and acts like Central Casting's idea of a personal trainer.) Today, though, muscles I forgot I had are reminding me that they exist. [insert witty and/or funny transition here] Have some links:

1) In an attempt to get one step ahead of Internet bank fraud, IBM is offering a PC-on-a-stick.

2) I am not a cat person, so I read with amusement how your cat is making you crazy. There's a wonderful SF story or two in there.

3) Apparently, the current clown-car-crop of Republicans found biofuel funny. Well, the US Air Force dares you to laugh at their biofuel. It really is sad how stupid the current political debate has gotten.

4) A quick reminder of the costs of war and why we shouldn't be in a hurry to get in one.

5) A reminder - I will be down in Westville tomorrow signing books at our lovely new library.

[identity profile] chris-gerrib.livejournal.com 2012-03-09 05:16 pm (UTC)(link)
There is nothing obvious about war with Iran. First, they are not actually making nuclear weapons at this point. Second, there's no reason to think they will attack Israel if and when they get weapons.

You see, people who are planning to use nukes don't have their President show up on state-run TV waving enriched uranium around like it's a golden egg! They build in secret, so it's harder to stop them.

People who are planning to wipe out a country with nukes don't worry about long-range missiles. It's easier to smuggle the bombs in and when they go off, there's less of a fingerprint.

No, Iran wants nukes (if they do at all) for two reasons - 1) domestic politics (Iran has an outsized opinion of itself) and 2) deterrence.

So, the issue isn't "war now or war later" it's "war or no war."

[identity profile] jordan179.livejournal.com 2012-03-09 05:33 pm (UTC)(link)
Iran's been carrying out low-intensity warfare against the West since 1979. This has included lethal attacks against civilians on Western soil. If you wish, I'll support this statement with references.

Since 2003, they've escalated, sending men and equipment into Iraq to directly fight against US troops in the region. This has resulted in numerous lethal attacks against US forces on allied soil. If you wish, I'll also support this statement with references.

Over the last year or two, we've begun fighting back with covert attacks on Iran, especially on the Iranian computer and nuclear capabilities. This has reached the point of the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists. This has happened recently enough that I trust you don't need references?

The official Iranian religious ideology tells them that the Hidden Imam will not rise until there is a global genocidal war against Muslims, followed by a global genocidal war of Muslims against everybody else. Hence, the Iranians have a unique purpose in obtaining nuclear weapons -- they are doing so not to deter an attack on Iran (which alone would be enough to stop them from getting it, given that Iran is currently engaged in low-level warfare against the West), but rather to induce such an attack -- because they believe that it will lead to Paradise on Earth.

In other words, they are trying to start exactly the sort of atomic war which will lead to the maximum suffering on the part of their own people -- because they believe that it will instead lead to the maximum JOY on the part of their own people.

You are trying to model them as the Soviets. They are not that sane.

[identity profile] chris-gerrib.livejournal.com 2012-03-09 05:51 pm (UTC)(link)
If they had really wanted to start a genocidal war, they could have invaded Iraq and/or Afghanistan in support of the Muslims there.

They didn't.

Or they could actually try to close the Straits of Hormuz.

They don't.

They know that a high-level war will result in Iran getting wiped out. So, much like the Soviets, they engage in low-level warfare.

This policy of aggravating your much larger enemy via pinpricks goes back to at least the English "sea dogs" of the 1500s vs. Spain.

The official ideology of Christianity says that Christ will return after an apocalyptic war in Israel. Should we assume that every devout Christian political leader wants to see Israel destroyed?
Edited 2012-03-09 17:55 (UTC)

[identity profile] daveon.livejournal.com 2012-03-09 09:21 pm (UTC)(link)
It's not like Israel hasn't been waging a medium grade intelligence/black ops war on them too... unless we think that the nuclear plants accidentally caught viruses and all those nuclear scientists were accidentally shot during muggings gone wrong...

[identity profile] jordan179.livejournal.com 2012-03-10 01:15 am (UTC)(link)
It's not like Israel hasn't been waging a medium grade intelligence/black ops war on them too...

Recently, yes. The term you're looking for is not "intelligence/black ops," it's assassination. Iran has been waging such a war against the West since at least 1989.