chris_gerrib (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
chris_gerrib) wrote2009-05-17 04:26 pm
chris_gerrib) wrote2009-05-17 04:26 pm
Entry tags:
Republic of Texas
So, a recent poll says 48% of Republicans in the state of Texas think that they would be better off as an independent nation. I’m not sure I agree with that, but, since I’m a science fiction writer, let’s play with that concept for a minute.
First, why would the rest of the US let them go? Well, a purely partisan reason is that the Democrats would be a big winner. A 58-seat majority in a 98-seat Senate is filibuster-proof. Blue states like California and Illinois would pick up (probably Democratic) House seats and Electoral College votes.
So, assume that we let Rick Perry take Texas out of the Union, and agree to split things up proportional to population. Texas has 24 million people, the US has a whole has 304 million, so Texas is 7% of the US. That means they get:
Army = 38,000 troops
Marines = 14,000 troops
Air Force = 23,000 personnel
Navy = 23,000 personnel
Which is a decent-sized force. Except that the Mexican Army has 183,000 troops and 8,000 marines. Granted, their army is not as mechanized as ours, but the Texan Defense Forces would be at a 5-to-1 disadvantage.
Not only do the Texans need to keep (or increase) their army, they need to pay for it. Now, this article suggests that Texas would only be in the hole for $2 billion in annual revenue, based on Federal tax dollars paid out vs. spending coming in.
How the military is factored into that, I don’t know, but since Texas will need its own FDA, EPA, Post Office and all the other alphabet-soup agencies, I don’t see tax cuts in their future. Remember, as a sovereign nation, the rest of the US doesn’t have to buy their debt, so deficit spending, at least at first, is right out. Oh, all those jobs at the Houston Space Center? Gone. (I think “Chicago Space Center” has a nice ring to it, don’t you?)
There are some other trends to consider. By 2020, the Texas Hispanic population is expected to outnumber the White population. This could lead to some interesting results. Canada has 33 million people, of whom 10 million are French, and Canada has had to bend over backwards to keep them in the country. What would happen if the majority of Texans got restless? I’d recommend making sure that the new national anthem can be sung in both Spanish and English.
I think that if Texas were to secede, they would end up very much like a warmer Canada. That is, a small bilingual country with close economic and military ties to the USA. Mind you, Canada is a fine place.
But the hypothetical "Republic of Texas" would need more than a little luck to pull this off. If not, well, the Mexican Senate has room, and Mexico wouldn’t have to redesign its flag. I think there might be a story out of this.
First, why would the rest of the US let them go? Well, a purely partisan reason is that the Democrats would be a big winner. A 58-seat majority in a 98-seat Senate is filibuster-proof. Blue states like California and Illinois would pick up (probably Democratic) House seats and Electoral College votes.
So, assume that we let Rick Perry take Texas out of the Union, and agree to split things up proportional to population. Texas has 24 million people, the US has a whole has 304 million, so Texas is 7% of the US. That means they get:
Army = 38,000 troops
Marines = 14,000 troops
Air Force = 23,000 personnel
Navy = 23,000 personnel
Which is a decent-sized force. Except that the Mexican Army has 183,000 troops and 8,000 marines. Granted, their army is not as mechanized as ours, but the Texan Defense Forces would be at a 5-to-1 disadvantage.
Not only do the Texans need to keep (or increase) their army, they need to pay for it. Now, this article suggests that Texas would only be in the hole for $2 billion in annual revenue, based on Federal tax dollars paid out vs. spending coming in.
How the military is factored into that, I don’t know, but since Texas will need its own FDA, EPA, Post Office and all the other alphabet-soup agencies, I don’t see tax cuts in their future. Remember, as a sovereign nation, the rest of the US doesn’t have to buy their debt, so deficit spending, at least at first, is right out. Oh, all those jobs at the Houston Space Center? Gone. (I think “Chicago Space Center” has a nice ring to it, don’t you?)
There are some other trends to consider. By 2020, the Texas Hispanic population is expected to outnumber the White population. This could lead to some interesting results. Canada has 33 million people, of whom 10 million are French, and Canada has had to bend over backwards to keep them in the country. What would happen if the majority of Texans got restless? I’d recommend making sure that the new national anthem can be sung in both Spanish and English.
I think that if Texas were to secede, they would end up very much like a warmer Canada. That is, a small bilingual country with close economic and military ties to the USA. Mind you, Canada is a fine place.
But the hypothetical "Republic of Texas" would need more than a little luck to pull this off. If not, well, the Mexican Senate has room, and Mexico wouldn’t have to redesign its flag. I think there might be a story out of this.
no subject
since Texas will need its own FDA, EPA, Post Office and all the other alphabet-soup agencies
Why? There's a reason they'd rather be independent, and the Federal Nanny State probably factors large into that. Be pretty silly to drag along (or recreate) the very reason they're cutting free!
no subject