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On forks and e-books
Jul. 18th, 2006 08:24 pmMy friend, the writer and publisher ![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
jeff_duntemann, is really looking for an author “Gumball Machine” to sell e-books. He wants to bypass conventional publishing, which, burdened with costs and tradition, is a pain in the neck to deal with. Since most people don’t like to read for fun on a computer screen, he’s really waiting for a cheap e-book reader.
I heard the writer Nick Pollotta give a speech at a Con once and said that some types of technology had to overcome “the fork factor.” In other words, if there’s already a technical solution in place, the new technology may have to overcome a lot of inertia. I think Jeff’s e-book / reader quest faces the fork factor.
Consider the fork (not the plastic ones, regular dinner forks). Around since the 1500s, it’s simple, stone-cold reliable and easy to use. Should you manage to break one (something that requires a deliberate effort) you pitch it and buy a new one.
Which is not to say that the fork is perfect. It won’t, for instance, warn you that the chicken you just stuck it into is crawling with bacteria. Let’s assume for a second you decide to design a better fork, one that sounds an alarm if it’s stuck in dangerous food. After you spend your megabucks doing this (for testing and FDA approval, if nothing else) what do you have?
You have a niche product. How much is the average consumer going to spend for a fork? Will they really carry their fork, (presumably in the nifty carrying case you gave them) with them when they go out and eat? When was the last time you bought forks, and would you really run out and get a new set to test for food poisoning?
The modern printed book is a similar product. It came out around the same time, in part because the same technical innovations that gave us cheap forks also helped with moveable type. Like the fork, it’s simple, cheap, portable and stone-cold reliable. You don’t find lists of book error codes on the Internet.
Again, the book isn’t perfect. It’s bulky, and as a physical item it has some irreducible costs. Paper and ink don’t grow on trees – well, you get the point. Books aren’t as easy to search as a database, but when was the last time you searched a novel?
So, assuming you want to spend the megabucks to develop an e-book, who’s going to buy it? Well, the first market is field service people. They could carry their tech manuals on their hips, and search them in the field. Another market is heavy travelers, although loss and theft will be a concern for them.
I don’t think the iPod example is directly applicable here. Most people can listen to music and walk, which is intrinsically different then reading. Also, at $200 a pop, there are a lot of people who aren’t able or willing to buy an iPod. In short, e-books will be a niche market for the foreseeable future. (Don’t get me started on DRM – that’s a different issue).
jeff_duntemann, is really looking for an author “Gumball Machine” to sell e-books. He wants to bypass conventional publishing, which, burdened with costs and tradition, is a pain in the neck to deal with. Since most people don’t like to read for fun on a computer screen, he’s really waiting for a cheap e-book reader. I heard the writer Nick Pollotta give a speech at a Con once and said that some types of technology had to overcome “the fork factor.” In other words, if there’s already a technical solution in place, the new technology may have to overcome a lot of inertia. I think Jeff’s e-book / reader quest faces the fork factor.
Consider the fork (not the plastic ones, regular dinner forks). Around since the 1500s, it’s simple, stone-cold reliable and easy to use. Should you manage to break one (something that requires a deliberate effort) you pitch it and buy a new one.
Which is not to say that the fork is perfect. It won’t, for instance, warn you that the chicken you just stuck it into is crawling with bacteria. Let’s assume for a second you decide to design a better fork, one that sounds an alarm if it’s stuck in dangerous food. After you spend your megabucks doing this (for testing and FDA approval, if nothing else) what do you have?
You have a niche product. How much is the average consumer going to spend for a fork? Will they really carry their fork, (presumably in the nifty carrying case you gave them) with them when they go out and eat? When was the last time you bought forks, and would you really run out and get a new set to test for food poisoning?
The modern printed book is a similar product. It came out around the same time, in part because the same technical innovations that gave us cheap forks also helped with moveable type. Like the fork, it’s simple, cheap, portable and stone-cold reliable. You don’t find lists of book error codes on the Internet.
Again, the book isn’t perfect. It’s bulky, and as a physical item it has some irreducible costs. Paper and ink don’t grow on trees – well, you get the point. Books aren’t as easy to search as a database, but when was the last time you searched a novel?
So, assuming you want to spend the megabucks to develop an e-book, who’s going to buy it? Well, the first market is field service people. They could carry their tech manuals on their hips, and search them in the field. Another market is heavy travelers, although loss and theft will be a concern for them.
I don’t think the iPod example is directly applicable here. Most people can listen to music and walk, which is intrinsically different then reading. Also, at $200 a pop, there are a lot of people who aren’t able or willing to buy an iPod. In short, e-books will be a niche market for the foreseeable future. (Don’t get me started on DRM – that’s a different issue).
