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Predictions and Credibility
Jun. 4th, 2008 11:29 amI'd like to talk a little bit about predictions and credibility. Imagine, if you will, an economist. Every year in December he's asked for his prediction of the coming year's economy. Every year he says "a recession is coming, starting in March." Every year. Employment's up? Recession. Employment's down? Recession. You get the picture.
Finally, after the date of his fifth annual prediction, the US economy slips into a recession. Now, is this economist suddenly a great genius, worthy of praise? I don't think so. More importantly, should other economists suddenly reconsider their assessments? Again, I don't think so. The guy always predicts a recession, and unless the business cycle is suddenly repealed, sooner or later he'll be right by accident. In other words, a stopped clock is right twice a day, a fact which doesn't make it any more useful for telling time.
What prompted this thought was remarks I've seen on various right-ish web sites that Obama will have to "backpedal" on Iraq now that the surge is working. Well, assuming that the surge will continue to work, no he doesn't have to backpedal. The fact that we may have found a way forward in Iraq doesn't mean that what we were doing in Iraq was correct. See yesterday's entry for the specifics.
The Bush administration has been like the economist above, except always predicting "victory." After a while, the prediction looses credibility. Lastly, Obama's original argument, that the war would involve an occupation of "unknown length at unknown cost" is looking to be quite accurate indeed.
Finally, after the date of his fifth annual prediction, the US economy slips into a recession. Now, is this economist suddenly a great genius, worthy of praise? I don't think so. More importantly, should other economists suddenly reconsider their assessments? Again, I don't think so. The guy always predicts a recession, and unless the business cycle is suddenly repealed, sooner or later he'll be right by accident. In other words, a stopped clock is right twice a day, a fact which doesn't make it any more useful for telling time.
What prompted this thought was remarks I've seen on various right-ish web sites that Obama will have to "backpedal" on Iraq now that the surge is working. Well, assuming that the surge will continue to work, no he doesn't have to backpedal. The fact that we may have found a way forward in Iraq doesn't mean that what we were doing in Iraq was correct. See yesterday's entry for the specifics.
The Bush administration has been like the economist above, except always predicting "victory." After a while, the prediction looses credibility. Lastly, Obama's original argument, that the war would involve an occupation of "unknown length at unknown cost" is looking to be quite accurate indeed.
