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Rainy Wednesday
Oct. 15th, 2008 04:54 pmIt's wet and dreary in Chicago, which serves to remind me it's a good thing to have an job where I work inside. Via some left-wing blog, I recently stumbled across this Michael Berube fellow. He's recently resumed blogging, and today very generously allowed a guest post by John McCain. (Warning - Republican True Believers may find the link's humor offensive.)
Obviously, the election is not over, so anything could happen, but Berube seems to have hit on McCain's central problem. The Republicans won in 2000 and 2004 on a very narrow portion of the electorate - Rove's famous "50% plus 1." McCain, for reasons known only to himself, decided to attempt a repeat.
It's not working, or at least not at the moment. First, Obama won the primaries by a large ground organization. He's used that organization to put all kinds of "red" states in play (see, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana). Second, as suggested by this Ben Smith post which as been all over the Internets, at least some portion of the Republican base is turning against McCain.
Again, the election's not over, but if I were a betting man (and I am) I'd be betting on Obama.
Obviously, the election is not over, so anything could happen, but Berube seems to have hit on McCain's central problem. The Republicans won in 2000 and 2004 on a very narrow portion of the electorate - Rove's famous "50% plus 1." McCain, for reasons known only to himself, decided to attempt a repeat.
It's not working, or at least not at the moment. First, Obama won the primaries by a large ground organization. He's used that organization to put all kinds of "red" states in play (see, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana). Second, as suggested by this Ben Smith post which as been all over the Internets, at least some portion of the Republican base is turning against McCain.
Again, the election's not over, but if I were a betting man (and I am) I'd be betting on Obama.
