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Fermi's Paradox - The Basic Flaw
Jun. 4th, 2009 01:32 pmSo, via , I find a link to an article suggesting a fatal flaw of Fermi's Paradox. Basically, Fermi's Paradox asks, "if there are other intelligent species in the galaxy, why aren't they here?" An analysis of the paradox suggests that, even with slower than light travel, a civilization could fill the galaxy in about 100 million years.
Except there is a flaw. This assumes that the aliens would have continuous and exponential growth.
When you look at our civilization (all caveats about sample size of 1 apply) the more advanced we get technologically, the less our population grows. A large part of that in our case is, that as technology advances, children transition from useful if unskilled labor to long-term burdens. This pushes birth rates down.
So, maybe the reasons the aliens aren't here is that their population isn't growing.
Except there is a flaw. This assumes that the aliens would have continuous and exponential growth.
When you look at our civilization (all caveats about sample size of 1 apply) the more advanced we get technologically, the less our population grows. A large part of that in our case is, that as technology advances, children transition from useful if unskilled labor to long-term burdens. This pushes birth rates down.
So, maybe the reasons the aliens aren't here is that their population isn't growing.
