Jan. 28th, 2010

chris_gerrib: (Default)
Twenty four years ago today the space shuttle Challenger exploded. I was in high school, and I don't think I saw footage of the explosion until I got home that afternoon.

Since I was a space geek even then, I was saddened by the event, but I did not understand the people who claimed that getting astronauts killed somehow would end the space program. What it did prove was that the Shuttle was "a bridge too far" - a system too complex and expensive for the available technology. Unfortunately, it took NASA a damn long time to get that lesson, and in fact I'm not sure they've yet internalized it - witness the NASA fixation on "heavy lift" vehicles.

We will eventually need the ability to get very large payloads into space. But just like we didn't go directly from the Wright Flyer to the 747 (or even the Lockheed Constellation), so we can't go from Apollo directly to shuttle. The key to developing space is getting there reliably, and developing reliable ships means:

1) Build small ships to a budget
2) Fly them until they break, both to develop the system and get an understanding of the cost.
3) Make the next ship better.
4) Repeat steps 1-3.

This is nothing I haven't said before. Fortunately, their are signs that the current administration is getting this right.

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