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I'm going to make a bold prediction. Absent a massive unforced error on Obama's part, he will win re-election in 2012 and the Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives. I predict this largely due to the Republican's current actions, which remind me of Democrats circa 1982.
In 1982 and 2010, the party out of power felt that they had lost power by running weak and/or unorthodox candidates, and that if they just run a standard-issue candidate they can win. This perception is aggravated by the tendency to forget that off-year elections can be carried by a mobilized base. (In 2008, 132.6 million Americans voted, while in 2010, only 90.6 million people voted. That's a fall-off of 42 million people.)
However, in a Presidential year, those 42 million are going to show up. They are going to see:
1) The "off" party advocating the same-ole-stuff they did when they last voted; stuff that was rejected then.
2) The "off" party running around being nasty, obstructionist and generally a pain to deal with. Many of those occasional voters really do want our politicians to work together, so those visibly not working together will get punished.
Adding to the upcoming election will be a fired-up Democratic base in a lot of states, such as Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio. The Republican base will be fired up too - but some of that fire will be aimed at "RINOs" (Republican In Name Only) who cut deals with the Democrats. There will be more Sharon Angles coming out of 2012 Republican primaries. Lastly, people want to vote for a program. The Republican program isn't for anything - it's against stuff.
This is not a call for complacency - the Democratic Party needs to run good candidates and get out the vote - but a prediction that the election is the Democrat's to lose.
On a related topic, Elizabeth Moon has some thoughts about the current Republican Party that I agree with entirely. It's part 1 of a series.
In 1982 and 2010, the party out of power felt that they had lost power by running weak and/or unorthodox candidates, and that if they just run a standard-issue candidate they can win. This perception is aggravated by the tendency to forget that off-year elections can be carried by a mobilized base. (In 2008, 132.6 million Americans voted, while in 2010, only 90.6 million people voted. That's a fall-off of 42 million people.)
However, in a Presidential year, those 42 million are going to show up. They are going to see:
1) The "off" party advocating the same-ole-stuff they did when they last voted; stuff that was rejected then.
2) The "off" party running around being nasty, obstructionist and generally a pain to deal with. Many of those occasional voters really do want our politicians to work together, so those visibly not working together will get punished.
Adding to the upcoming election will be a fired-up Democratic base in a lot of states, such as Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio. The Republican base will be fired up too - but some of that fire will be aimed at "RINOs" (Republican In Name Only) who cut deals with the Democrats. There will be more Sharon Angles coming out of 2012 Republican primaries. Lastly, people want to vote for a program. The Republican program isn't for anything - it's against stuff.
This is not a call for complacency - the Democratic Party needs to run good candidates and get out the vote - but a prediction that the election is the Democrat's to lose.
On a related topic, Elizabeth Moon has some thoughts about the current Republican Party that I agree with entirely. It's part 1 of a series.
