![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Dark Forest Theory
Nov. 2nd, 2016 11:33 amThere is a concept going around in science fiction called "dark forest theory." The popular Three Body Problem trilogy relies on it. New author Patrick Tomlinson's Children of a Dead Earth series relies on it. The theory is this:
1) Given that 90% of stars in our galaxy have planets, which means billions of planetary systems
2) Even pessimistic assumptions about the occurrence and duration of intelligent life, the galaxy should have many such species
3) We haven't seen any aliens
4) Either they are hiding or something is wiping them out.
Item #4 is where we get the name "dark forest theory." The galaxy is like a dark forest, full of predators, and the only way to survive is to hide. The logic of dark forest theory is that any intelligent civilization will eventually advance to a level of tech sufficient to endanger the more intelligent civilizations, so it's best to kill the newcomers before they get too smart. Also driving this idea is that, for a sufficiently-advanced civilization, wiping out a planet is easy. (Take a rock the size of a bus, accelerate it to 90% the speed of light, and crash it into a planet. You will literally turn the crust of the planet inside out.)
Personally, I believe in weak dark forest theory. By this, I mean that their may be predatory alien species out there. I don't believe in strong theory, as expressed in the books above, in which mere indications of intelligent life invites a world-ending strike. I have two issues with the strong version of the theory.
First, practical. We don't make proactive efforts to hunt down ants. We'll kill them if we find them, but we don't hunt them. Nor do we hunt most potential threats. We proactively spend the time and effort to go after proven threats, like mosquitoes. Space is big, hunting down and killing species cost money.
My second objection is the "fastest gun in the West" theory. Simply put, the only civilization that gets an opportunity to do this is the absolute first. If there are multiple civilizations, then the one that starts dark foresting puts a large bullseye on its back. Everybody is gunning for them, out of self-preservation. And the act of being an exterminator means they aren't hiding.
No, the reason we haven't seen advanced alien civilizations is that the galaxy is big, we've only been looking a short time and our current tools could only find civilizations that are changing solar systems.
1) Given that 90% of stars in our galaxy have planets, which means billions of planetary systems
2) Even pessimistic assumptions about the occurrence and duration of intelligent life, the galaxy should have many such species
3) We haven't seen any aliens
4) Either they are hiding or something is wiping them out.
Item #4 is where we get the name "dark forest theory." The galaxy is like a dark forest, full of predators, and the only way to survive is to hide. The logic of dark forest theory is that any intelligent civilization will eventually advance to a level of tech sufficient to endanger the more intelligent civilizations, so it's best to kill the newcomers before they get too smart. Also driving this idea is that, for a sufficiently-advanced civilization, wiping out a planet is easy. (Take a rock the size of a bus, accelerate it to 90% the speed of light, and crash it into a planet. You will literally turn the crust of the planet inside out.)
Personally, I believe in weak dark forest theory. By this, I mean that their may be predatory alien species out there. I don't believe in strong theory, as expressed in the books above, in which mere indications of intelligent life invites a world-ending strike. I have two issues with the strong version of the theory.
First, practical. We don't make proactive efforts to hunt down ants. We'll kill them if we find them, but we don't hunt them. Nor do we hunt most potential threats. We proactively spend the time and effort to go after proven threats, like mosquitoes. Space is big, hunting down and killing species cost money.
My second objection is the "fastest gun in the West" theory. Simply put, the only civilization that gets an opportunity to do this is the absolute first. If there are multiple civilizations, then the one that starts dark foresting puts a large bullseye on its back. Everybody is gunning for them, out of self-preservation. And the act of being an exterminator means they aren't hiding.
No, the reason we haven't seen advanced alien civilizations is that the galaxy is big, we've only been looking a short time and our current tools could only find civilizations that are changing solar systems.
