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Election 2020
Nov. 4th, 2020 07:50 amOn the one hand, I'm not very happy with the results of the election. I was hoping for much bigger numbers for Biden and the swing of a couple of big Republican states. Don't get me wrong - with the number of states still in play Biden has a good shot at winning. It looks like he picked up Arizona which provides some measure of insurance.
On the other hand, going back to Taft in 1912, incumbent Presidents aren't defeated; rather they lose. The incumbent is either hit with a credible third-party challenger, a bitter primary fight or both. This includes Truman in 1952 and LBJ in 1968, both of whom chose not to run because they didn't have their party's support. So if Biden pulls this out, he'll have done something very unusual in American politics.
There are a couple of other points.
1) It's clear there's some "Trump effect" or more accurately "Republican effect" which is causing their support to be understated in polling. I think this is most clear in Senate races - several were supposed to be closer than they ended up being.
2) It's also clear that we have a huge political gap in this country which largely breaks on class and race lines. Urban and suburban America (which includes a lot of people of color) wants one set of things, rural America (which is very pale) wants an entirely different set of things.
3) Possibly a subset of #2, but I remain baffled as to why rural America thinks a rich New York real estate developer has their best interests at heart. I also remain baffled as to what exactly they think Trump has accomplished. The trade deficit is up, offshoring of jobs has not stopped or even slowed down, and COVID-19 is uncontrolled.
H. L. Mencken said, "democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." We seem to be testing that theory.
On the other hand, going back to Taft in 1912, incumbent Presidents aren't defeated; rather they lose. The incumbent is either hit with a credible third-party challenger, a bitter primary fight or both. This includes Truman in 1952 and LBJ in 1968, both of whom chose not to run because they didn't have their party's support. So if Biden pulls this out, he'll have done something very unusual in American politics.
There are a couple of other points.
1) It's clear there's some "Trump effect" or more accurately "Republican effect" which is causing their support to be understated in polling. I think this is most clear in Senate races - several were supposed to be closer than they ended up being.
2) It's also clear that we have a huge political gap in this country which largely breaks on class and race lines. Urban and suburban America (which includes a lot of people of color) wants one set of things, rural America (which is very pale) wants an entirely different set of things.
3) Possibly a subset of #2, but I remain baffled as to why rural America thinks a rich New York real estate developer has their best interests at heart. I also remain baffled as to what exactly they think Trump has accomplished. The trade deficit is up, offshoring of jobs has not stopped or even slowed down, and COVID-19 is uncontrolled.
H. L. Mencken said, "democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." We seem to be testing that theory.
