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Biden, Harris and Trump
Jul. 21st, 2024 02:02 pmSo, like everybody else, I just saw the news that Joe Biden has decided to withdraw from the race for President and endorse Kamala Harris. Thoughts, in stream of consciousness order.
1) This is what a functioning political party looks like. When it appears that a candidate for office is no longer up to snuff, they are replaced. It's sad, especially if the candidate has served honorably and well, and disruptive, but it's what should happen. It's what should have happened to Trump in 2020 and 2024.
2) People can be 100% good and then suddenly not-so good. This is not just an age thing. My barber, a woman in her late 30s / early 40s, was reliable for years, then a year ago went through a stretch where she was at five or six shops in a year's time, frequently leaving before I could get a haircut scheduled. People sometimes suddenly hit personal issues rendering them not able to perform.
3) On a tactical level, anybody who isn't going to vote for a black woman wasn't going to vote for Biden anyway. I suspect we may get a few people who were concerned about Biden's cognition to vote for (or at least look at) Harris. Trump, after all, has a very long history of being incoherent at length and at high volume.
4) Also on a tactical level, replacing an 81-year-old with a 59-year-old does negate one of Trump's biggest arguments - the "Sleepy Joe's too old" BS.
5) Historical comparisons to LBJ in 1968 are misplaced. LBJ lost 5 southern states to George Wallace over segregation. I don't see Harris losing states to RFK jr. or any other 3rd party candidate.
6) The Democratic Party is a big tent - I'm sure some Democratic politician is going to float some "open convention" idea. I suspect that will be a non-starter.
1) This is what a functioning political party looks like. When it appears that a candidate for office is no longer up to snuff, they are replaced. It's sad, especially if the candidate has served honorably and well, and disruptive, but it's what should happen. It's what should have happened to Trump in 2020 and 2024.
2) People can be 100% good and then suddenly not-so good. This is not just an age thing. My barber, a woman in her late 30s / early 40s, was reliable for years, then a year ago went through a stretch where she was at five or six shops in a year's time, frequently leaving before I could get a haircut scheduled. People sometimes suddenly hit personal issues rendering them not able to perform.
3) On a tactical level, anybody who isn't going to vote for a black woman wasn't going to vote for Biden anyway. I suspect we may get a few people who were concerned about Biden's cognition to vote for (or at least look at) Harris. Trump, after all, has a very long history of being incoherent at length and at high volume.
4) Also on a tactical level, replacing an 81-year-old with a 59-year-old does negate one of Trump's biggest arguments - the "Sleepy Joe's too old" BS.
5) Historical comparisons to LBJ in 1968 are misplaced. LBJ lost 5 southern states to George Wallace over segregation. I don't see Harris losing states to RFK jr. or any other 3rd party candidate.
6) The Democratic Party is a big tent - I'm sure some Democratic politician is going to float some "open convention" idea. I suspect that will be a non-starter.
