Oct. 21st, 2024

chris_gerrib: (Default)
Trump supporters frequently say "if Trump had been President in 2022 the Ukraine war wouldn't have happened." Trump opponents, on hearing Trump say "I can end the war in Ukraine in a day," say "sure, if you surrender the war is over." Both groups of people are wrong.

The Trump supporters have bought into what Putin is trying to sell them, namely that Ukraine is a US puppet and that they will dance to our tune. This is not the case. They can and will fight. Remember, the entire first month of the war was all Ukraine fighting with stuff given to them years ago. If Trump had been President, that first month of the war would have played out essentially the same. Also remember that Zelenskyy didn't believe our warnings that Russia was going to invade. It's questionable whether or not Zelenskyy would have even taken Trump's phone call let alone believe an invasion warning.

Regarding surrender - if Trump gets into office, he will undoubtedly withhold aid to Ukraine. It's doubtful that will do much to end the war, at least not quickly. It's also entirely possible that withholding aid will create a new nuclear power in the world. Ukraine has a large military industrial complex, understands nuclear physics, and is highly motivated.

What would happen, should Trump get back into office, is that Putin will be more emboldened and that our response to Putin's next gambit will be mismanaged.

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