The 28th Amendment
Jun. 14th, 2016 09:51 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
chris_gerribYesterday I made a rather off-hand remark that America was the place that amended the Constitution to ban booze, suggesting that we could change the Constitution with regards to guns. I'm not advocating that, rather predicting / warning it's possible, and I'd like to unpack that thought a bit. Part of my job as science fiction writer is to think of the future.
First, I don't think America will ban all guns. I do think we could get an amendment empowering Congress to greatly restrict gun ownership, specifically types of guns and rules for the transfer of same. However, my interest today is in how such an amendment gets passed.
If one looks at Prohibition, the coalition that got it passed consisted of rural Protestants upset at urban immigration and women. Prior to deregulated divorce, domestic violence laws and the destigmatization of women working outside the home, having an alcoholic as a father or husband was disastrous to women. So, despite a majority of Americans being drinkers (and heavy ones, by modern standards) booze got banned.
Alas, gun owners are already in a minority. Owners of AR-15s, 2-3 million of them, are less than 1% of Americans. So far, this minority has been able to hold the line.
The Orlando shooting appears to be of a type that, if we see more of them, may crack that line. Here we have a son of immigrants, known to police as a problem, who goes and buys a high-capacity weapon which he uses a week later to hose down a public venue. I could see urban voters bonding with war on terror types over whatever legislation it would take to prevent these kinds of attacks.
First, I don't think America will ban all guns. I do think we could get an amendment empowering Congress to greatly restrict gun ownership, specifically types of guns and rules for the transfer of same. However, my interest today is in how such an amendment gets passed.
If one looks at Prohibition, the coalition that got it passed consisted of rural Protestants upset at urban immigration and women. Prior to deregulated divorce, domestic violence laws and the destigmatization of women working outside the home, having an alcoholic as a father or husband was disastrous to women. So, despite a majority of Americans being drinkers (and heavy ones, by modern standards) booze got banned.
Alas, gun owners are already in a minority. Owners of AR-15s, 2-3 million of them, are less than 1% of Americans. So far, this minority has been able to hold the line.
The Orlando shooting appears to be of a type that, if we see more of them, may crack that line. Here we have a son of immigrants, known to police as a problem, who goes and buys a high-capacity weapon which he uses a week later to hose down a public venue. I could see urban voters bonding with war on terror types over whatever legislation it would take to prevent these kinds of attacks.
