Man on the Moon
Jul. 20th, 2009 08:20 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
chris_gerribToday is the 40th anniversary of man's first landing on the Moon. Since my 3rd birthday wouldn't happen for another couple of months, I have no memory of the event. In fact, I have only one memory of any Moon landing. I remember sitting on the floor in my grandfather's house, watching astronauts bounce around on TV. The broadcast was in color (in think) and it was daylight in my Central Illinois town.
At the time of the landing, most people assumed we'd keep going -building a permanent orbital station and a permanent research base on the Moon, while moving forward to Mars. That didn't happen, largely because the space shuttle was a bridge to far technologically - too big to fail, too big to routinely test, and too big a leap from the state of the art at the time. We're currently with space travel about where we were with aviation in say, 1908 - if the vehicle flies at all, it's a minor miracle. We need to get to 1918 - where liftoff is merely expected.
But the important thing is not the vehicle, it's the goal. Why we are doing something should be decided first, and let goals drive requirements which then drive hardware. So what should our goal be?
Colonization. Man should have permanent settlements in space. I've read somewhere that, if everybody were to live the lifestyle of an average American, we'd need the resources of several Earths. Well, guess what - there are several Earth's worth of resources in space, including energy - in space the sun always shines.
But we're a long way from achieving routine colonization. I like to imagine it as a series of steps. Step 100 is the goal - multiple self-sustaining colonies in space. We're at step 5 - able to get people to Earth orbit and probes to anywhere. Steps 6-10 are cost steps - cost of getting "stuff" to orbit. Right now the cost is ridiculous - $20 million for one man to tag along on an already-scheduled mission. It needs to be more like $20 thousand.
So how do we get there?
1) Build small ships to a budget
2) Fly them until they break, both to develop the system and get an understanding of the cost.
3) Make the next ship better.
4) Repeat steps 1-3.
Now, I don't care who does these steps - NASA, private companies or both - but that's what we need to do.
At the time of the landing, most people assumed we'd keep going -building a permanent orbital station and a permanent research base on the Moon, while moving forward to Mars. That didn't happen, largely because the space shuttle was a bridge to far technologically - too big to fail, too big to routinely test, and too big a leap from the state of the art at the time. We're currently with space travel about where we were with aviation in say, 1908 - if the vehicle flies at all, it's a minor miracle. We need to get to 1918 - where liftoff is merely expected.
But the important thing is not the vehicle, it's the goal. Why we are doing something should be decided first, and let goals drive requirements which then drive hardware. So what should our goal be?
Colonization. Man should have permanent settlements in space. I've read somewhere that, if everybody were to live the lifestyle of an average American, we'd need the resources of several Earths. Well, guess what - there are several Earth's worth of resources in space, including energy - in space the sun always shines.
But we're a long way from achieving routine colonization. I like to imagine it as a series of steps. Step 100 is the goal - multiple self-sustaining colonies in space. We're at step 5 - able to get people to Earth orbit and probes to anywhere. Steps 6-10 are cost steps - cost of getting "stuff" to orbit. Right now the cost is ridiculous - $20 million for one man to tag along on an already-scheduled mission. It needs to be more like $20 thousand.
So how do we get there?
1) Build small ships to a budget
2) Fly them until they break, both to develop the system and get an understanding of the cost.
3) Make the next ship better.
4) Repeat steps 1-3.
Now, I don't care who does these steps - NASA, private companies or both - but that's what we need to do.
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Symptom, not cause.
Date: 2009-07-20 02:49 pm (UTC)The Great White Elephant, a “Space Transportation System” so monumentally bad that (as pundits have pointed out) if lead could be changed to gold merely by taking it into orbit, it still wouldn't pay to do it on the Shuttle - this was what NASA came up with later, thereby showing what government can do for you.
Consider this, as that same Federal government inexorably imposes socialist “health care” upon the nation.
Re: Symptom, not cause.
Date: 2009-07-20 03:15 pm (UTC)The real screw-up was the too-big shuttle.