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Unpleasant Medicine
May. 19th, 2010 01:47 pmThe always-interesting science fiction author Charlie Stross has useful article on environmentalism and cognitive biases. His basic point: Played right, a shift to a sustainable economy should see a net increase in wealth because the wealth-producing activities shift with the demand for sustainability. Hair shirt puritanism is not only unnecessary; it's positively damaging to our future, and I wish the greens would drop it right now.
To which I say, "amen." See, too many in the Green movement think "capitalism" is shorthand for "massively growing consumption of stuff." It's not. For most people, they can have "enough" stuff at some point. There's actually a business term for this - "saturated market." In a saturated market for durable goods, everybody who is going to buy from you already has, and new customers are buying only to replace worn-out stuff. (I simplify, but you get the point.)
On the other hand, there is a cognitive bias that translates "we need to reduce economic growth" as "we're going to take your stuff away." This is not necessarily true. For example, replacing old-style incandescent light bulbs with CFLs or LED bulbs reduces energy consumed and the amount of time you spend replacing blown bulbs while giving the same amount of light.
You wouldn't think that sort of trade would send people to the barricades shouting "drill baby drill!" But sometimes it's not what is said, it's what is heard.
To which I say, "amen." See, too many in the Green movement think "capitalism" is shorthand for "massively growing consumption of stuff." It's not. For most people, they can have "enough" stuff at some point. There's actually a business term for this - "saturated market." In a saturated market for durable goods, everybody who is going to buy from you already has, and new customers are buying only to replace worn-out stuff. (I simplify, but you get the point.)
On the other hand, there is a cognitive bias that translates "we need to reduce economic growth" as "we're going to take your stuff away." This is not necessarily true. For example, replacing old-style incandescent light bulbs with CFLs or LED bulbs reduces energy consumed and the amount of time you spend replacing blown bulbs while giving the same amount of light.
You wouldn't think that sort of trade would send people to the barricades shouting "drill baby drill!" But sometimes it's not what is said, it's what is heard.
