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The Russians Are Coming! (Again!)
Nov. 12th, 2015 10:07 amVia various sources, I was led to this article. The article claims that, should we fight head-to-head with Russia, especially in the Baltic states (Lithuania, for example) the Russians will wipe us out. It also claims to have an answer, namely reorganize the US Army into Reconnaissance Strike Groups (PDF) driving an upgunned German-designed Puma armored vehicle.
I find this yet another example of a long-standing trend in military thought. The trend is to perceive your enemy as ten foot tall and bulletproof, and only by adopting some Cool New Thing can you have a hope of defeating him. Herewith are my (I hope more reasoned) thoughts:
1) A conventional defense of the Baltics is very difficult. They are small, flat countries, perfect for armored warfare. Any realistic defense conventional defense would realize that the best one could do is retreat to a handful of coastal enclaves and there await a counter-invasion.
2) The Russians are not ten feet tall. They have had to significantly reduce their military, and other than the airborne units rely on two-year conscripts who are not particularly well-trained or motivated. Nor do their NCOs and officers have the real-world experience of our units.
3) Having said #2, our troops are used to operating in total air supremacy and with minimal electronic interference to their communications. This would not be the case in the Baltics, and would result in US losses.
4) Putin has not shown a willingness to launch all-out fights. He could have unleashed a torrent of tanks against the Ukraine but did not, largely because even against a poorly-armed enemy his forces would take unacceptable losses.
Given all of the above, the best defense of the Baltics in particular and NATO in general is to convince Putin that any attack on any part of NATO is going to result in a long and drawn-out war.
I find this yet another example of a long-standing trend in military thought. The trend is to perceive your enemy as ten foot tall and bulletproof, and only by adopting some Cool New Thing can you have a hope of defeating him. Herewith are my (I hope more reasoned) thoughts:
1) A conventional defense of the Baltics is very difficult. They are small, flat countries, perfect for armored warfare. Any realistic defense conventional defense would realize that the best one could do is retreat to a handful of coastal enclaves and there await a counter-invasion.
2) The Russians are not ten feet tall. They have had to significantly reduce their military, and other than the airborne units rely on two-year conscripts who are not particularly well-trained or motivated. Nor do their NCOs and officers have the real-world experience of our units.
3) Having said #2, our troops are used to operating in total air supremacy and with minimal electronic interference to their communications. This would not be the case in the Baltics, and would result in US losses.
4) Putin has not shown a willingness to launch all-out fights. He could have unleashed a torrent of tanks against the Ukraine but did not, largely because even against a poorly-armed enemy his forces would take unacceptable losses.
Given all of the above, the best defense of the Baltics in particular and NATO in general is to convince Putin that any attack on any part of NATO is going to result in a long and drawn-out war.
