The Russians Are Coming! (Again!)

[chris_gerrib]

Via various sources, I was led to this article. The article claims that, should we fight head-to-head with Russia, especially in the Baltic states (Lithuania, for example) the Russians will wipe us out. It also claims to have an answer, namely reorganize the US Army into Reconnaissance Strike Groups (PDF) driving an upgunned German-designed Puma armored vehicle.

I find this yet another example of a long-standing trend in military thought. The trend is to perceive your enemy as ten foot tall and bulletproof, and only by adopting some Cool New Thing can you have a hope of defeating him. Herewith are my (I hope more reasoned) thoughts:

1) A conventional defense of the Baltics is very difficult. They are small, flat countries, perfect for armored warfare. Any realistic defense conventional defense would realize that the best one could do is retreat to a handful of coastal enclaves and there await a counter-invasion.

2) The Russians are not ten feet tall. They have had to significantly reduce their military, and other than the airborne units rely on two-year conscripts who are not particularly well-trained or motivated. Nor do their NCOs and officers have the real-world experience of our units.

3) Having said #2, our troops are used to operating in total air supremacy and with minimal electronic interference to their communications. This would not be the case in the Baltics, and would result in US losses.

4) Putin has not shown a willingness to launch all-out fights. He could have unleashed a torrent of tanks against the Ukraine but did not, largely because even against a poorly-armed enemy his forces would take unacceptable losses.

Given all of the above, the best defense of the Baltics in particular and NATO in general is to convince Putin that any attack on any part of NATO is going to result in a long and drawn-out war.

Comments

[maadmike.livejournal.com]

Where did you get an idea that Russians want to grab the Baltic countries? We had gave them by our only will and doing fine without.

[chris-gerrib.livejournal.com]

The Politico article I linked to made the suggestion. It's a reflection of European concerns after Russia's recent actions in Crimea and Ukraine.

[maadmike.livejournal.com]

USA and EU had broke every promises and collaborative agreements not to expand NATO to our boarders when we didn't. And when you did the coup d'etat at the Ukraine after and have pushed this country to a civil war where the Russian which are the citizens of the Ukraine have became a target of hounding by Ukrainian nacist- you didn't give a choice to the people of the Crimea but to flee under the Russian protection with their lawful right - referendum by using which you again had dismembered our old ally "Yugoslavia" to the fighting pieces and no country at EU had found nothing wrong about it. If the Russia had wanted to get the Ukraine, we could do it during a week with the help of many Russians which are living and struggling there but we don't need it as you didn't need no country you had destroyed last decades, like Iraq or Libya...

[chris-gerrib.livejournal.com]

I'm not aware of any agreement to not expand NATO to the Russian borders. I would note that the countries in question ASKED to join NATO, apparently because they were concerned.

From where I sit, Ukraine looked like the Ukrainian people getting themselves rid of a dictator, and I didn't see the need of the Crimean people to flee to anybody's protection.

Yugoslavia dismembered itself, then part of it (Serbia) decided to reassemble it by force.

[maadmike.livejournal.com]

All you know is from your news. I am living near all these countries and believe me even if Russian news was constantly lying to me I would have got the true information because I see the people from all the East countries working in my district every now and then, plus my relatives are living within the thirty km zone from the Donbas. If you like you can get the information about what is going on here in reality from our news, it is not difficult to translate now and there is english texts as well...
If you are not but want to discuss some of the issues I will be glad for an extend... ;)