Colonizing the Desert

[chris_gerrib]

The first permanent building in Las Vegas, Nevada was built in 1905. In 1930, the 5,100 people there made it the very definition of a "jerkwater" town - a place the locomotives stopped to refill on water. In 1960, well into the casino era, the population was 64,000. As of the 2010 census, Clark County (Las Vegas and suburbs) has a population of 2.1 million. Phoenix, Arizona, was historically a bit bigger, having a population in 1950 of 106,000. Today, the population of the metro area is 4.2 million.

The source of this information, the blogger at Gin and Tacos, uses this data to make a political point. These population figures are possible because of water, cheap electricity and air conditioning. Two of those three things (water and power) came about because the Federal government built dams and irrigation projects, such as Arizona's Salt River Project and the Hoover Dam, with taxpayer dollars. Without this Big Government intervention, 9 our of 10 Arizona and Nevada Tea Partiers wouldn't be there. This is because 9 out of 10 people wouldn't be there.

I'd like to use the same data to make a point about space colonization. Man can no more live in these areas (at least in anywhere near these numbers) then Man can live on Mars. Yeah, dying of lack of air is quicker than dying of thirst and heatstroke, but no less certain. If we are going to colonize Mars, we'll need the same level of effort, and the same level of dependence on technology to survive.

I'd also like to make a point about sustainability. There is and has been for a while a fear that not only can the region not support additional growth, but that it can't support its current population - that the water allocation was based on a wetter-than-average historical period. Space colonies will face the same problem, and in both cases, the solution will be the same. Either resource prices (be it the air tax or the water bill) will go up, forcing some people to move, or there will be a catastrophic failure causing a mass exodus.

If the former event occurs (and that's where I'm putting my money) not only will population and usage levels go down, but the higher price will attract new resource providers. For Arizona, I have a vision of solar desalinization plants sucking water from the Gulf of California and piping it up to Phoenix. For a Martian colony, well, I'm sure they'll think of something. But at a certain size of problem, the only solution is government.

Comments

[kalance.livejournal.com]

While the efforts of the government may have led to a population boom in the area, what prompted the initial settlement? I'm aware that in many instances, including the initial colonization of the New World, was prompted by private businesses. Sort of like the East India Trading Company.

New towns were often financed by companies who hoped to reap a profit, and so "hired" settlers to move into an area and set up mines or whatnot. As you said, Las Vegas' true start didn't happen until the land was bought by a railroad company and utilized as a place for the trains to get water. Had it not been for that, it is not likely that area would have been so readily settled or developed.

The government is unlikely to spawn true colonies on either the moon or mars. The only time the US government has contributed directly to the birth of a city is when one was built up around a fort, or other military base. Neither of which is needed at this point on Mars or Luna. Far more likely is a business venture. An expedition to extract rare earths or other vital materials to be shipped back to Earth. In such cases, a viable self-sustaining colony would be far more cost effective than multiple to-and-back mining trips.

Does a strong central government allow for a colony to grow more rapidly? Sure. But to start them up, you will find private businesses offer the better chance of success, or even willingness. Government backed efforts for space related endeavors have all but evaporated, after all. And private businesses are doing more, for less, than NASA ever has.

Frankly, what motivation does the federal government have to settle Mars? Really? Compared to the motivation of a private corporation which learns about a substantial rare earth deposit with an estimated value in the trillions of dollars?

[chris-gerrib.livejournal.com]

I've written extensively of my belief that space colonization will come from private firms in the tourism business (http://chris-gerrib.livejournal.com/tag/colonies). My point was that the technological obstacles are similar.