On The Election That Was
Jan. 12th, 2017 11:17 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
chris_gerribBecause it has been on my mind, herewith are some thoughts on the election. I intend to go from facts to theories about the facts to recommendations.
Facts
Looking at the voting data, it appears that Clinton lost the election because in many states, rural areas that had voted Republican in 2008 and 2012 60/40 went Republican in 2016 70/30 or 80/20. What did not happen was:
1) minority turnout being significantly repressed. Minorities came out in typical numbers.
2) New voters were not generated. Voter registration was not radically higher nationwide. Where it was higher was in a few states like Texas and that helped Democrats.
This is borderline between a fact and a theory, but it sure looks like about 20% of the rural (white, working-class) electorate, after voting twice for a black man, voted against a white woman.
Theories
There are undoubtedly various sexist and racist people out there who refused to vote for Clinton. However, it appears that they didn't vote for Obama. It also appears that there is a significant bloc of voters that are persuadable. It's my contention that's the group to focus on. Call them the "Obama 20%."
More Theories and Recommendations
Based as somebody who grew up in a small town, with a grandfather and two uncles who were coal miners, I have a theory as to why the Obama 20% went Trump. It's two-pronged.
First is economics. Again from experience, in a small town, when the factory closes, the impact is worse than a tornado. At least after a tornado, the National Guard is sent to clean up. I think I have a better chance of building a starship than Trump has of fixing the small-town job problem, but I know Clinton's plan of educating workers won't fly. When small-town voters hear "educating workers" they think of me - somebody who got a college degree and moved the hell out of Dodge. That might be what has to happen, but it means even more hollowed-out towns.
Second is foreign policy. Clinton called for a no-fly zone in Syria. As somebody who spent five years in the Navy to get out of a small town, small towns have borne a disproportionate share of America's recent wars. Clinton's foreign policy of injecting ourselves into another war did not sell well. Here Obama's (and Trump's) idea of staying out of Syria sold much better.
Recommendations
On economics, free trade is dead. The sooner everybody buries it the better. I do think coal is not coming back, but we need to talk about softening that blow. On foreign policy, a little less war would be nice.
Facts
Looking at the voting data, it appears that Clinton lost the election because in many states, rural areas that had voted Republican in 2008 and 2012 60/40 went Republican in 2016 70/30 or 80/20. What did not happen was:
1) minority turnout being significantly repressed. Minorities came out in typical numbers.
2) New voters were not generated. Voter registration was not radically higher nationwide. Where it was higher was in a few states like Texas and that helped Democrats.
This is borderline between a fact and a theory, but it sure looks like about 20% of the rural (white, working-class) electorate, after voting twice for a black man, voted against a white woman.
Theories
There are undoubtedly various sexist and racist people out there who refused to vote for Clinton. However, it appears that they didn't vote for Obama. It also appears that there is a significant bloc of voters that are persuadable. It's my contention that's the group to focus on. Call them the "Obama 20%."
More Theories and Recommendations
Based as somebody who grew up in a small town, with a grandfather and two uncles who were coal miners, I have a theory as to why the Obama 20% went Trump. It's two-pronged.
First is economics. Again from experience, in a small town, when the factory closes, the impact is worse than a tornado. At least after a tornado, the National Guard is sent to clean up. I think I have a better chance of building a starship than Trump has of fixing the small-town job problem, but I know Clinton's plan of educating workers won't fly. When small-town voters hear "educating workers" they think of me - somebody who got a college degree and moved the hell out of Dodge. That might be what has to happen, but it means even more hollowed-out towns.
Second is foreign policy. Clinton called for a no-fly zone in Syria. As somebody who spent five years in the Navy to get out of a small town, small towns have borne a disproportionate share of America's recent wars. Clinton's foreign policy of injecting ourselves into another war did not sell well. Here Obama's (and Trump's) idea of staying out of Syria sold much better.
Recommendations
On economics, free trade is dead. The sooner everybody buries it the better. I do think coal is not coming back, but we need to talk about softening that blow. On foreign policy, a little less war would be nice.
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no subject
Date: 2017-01-13 03:48 pm (UTC)The short version of this is what I said earlier - the American people voted against Comrade Hillary and everything she represents. That's what mattered.
As for Trump, it's amusing to see the People's Revolutionary Media wonks bitch and whine about how he is treating them - and how the American people just don't get it. Yes, we do, and we have had quite enough of them. He's NOT a smarmy mealymouthed professional politician, which - again - is why he won.
[You may not be quite old enough to remember this, but I want you to notice the crowd reaction.
https://youtu.be/tmfkYu4m2jA
The word of the day is, landslide. Today, the mainstream media cartels finally got told the same thing - and the nation's reaction is the same.]
ne
Date: 2017-01-13 04:08 pm (UTC)Re: ne
Date: 2017-01-14 12:39 am (UTC)I'll assume my own grammar was at fault there - and that you ARE too young to remember Reagan's election victories, which are what I was referring to. He threw Jimmy Carter and the whole People's Socialist Democratic machine in the trash merely by asking the American electorate, “Had enough?”
We had indeed - and his re-election over Walter Mondale and Geraldine Ferraro (later to be fired from Comrade Hillary's campaign team; “Do us a favor - stay off our side”) in the face of bitter, united, hysterical hatred and propaganda blizzard by the entrenched Leftists of the mass media cartels was the most overwhelming landslide since 1972, when an earlier generation of Silent Majority had made their opinion known.
What goes around, comes around. No one wants the Left except the Left themselves.
From time to time we've been tempted to believe that society has become too complex
to be managed by self-rule, that government by an elite group is superior to government
for, by, and of the people. In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our
problem; government IS the problem.
- Ronald Reagan, 1981
Re: ne
Date: 2017-01-14 08:48 pm (UTC)Re: ne
Date: 2017-01-15 04:36 am (UTC)What I found interesting was how close Gerald Ford came to beating ol' Jimmy in 1976. Ford was a good man, and a surprisingly good Chief Executive.
There were people at the time who were as upset about him pardoning Nixon as people were when Truman fired D MacArthur, but over time the wisdom of pardoning both him AND draft dodgers alike became clear: Enough. It's over.
p.s. Well, technically it was nine percent.
Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and
transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer,
while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are
accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object
evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to
throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security…
So we did.
Electoral College Map, 1980