chris_gerrib: (Default)
Yesterday on Facebook I shared this article in which an Alabama doctor finds herself telling dying COVID patients that it's too late to take the vaccine. I've also seen indications that at least some right-wing opinion leaders are starting to advocate for their followers to get vaccinated. Unfortunately, it's probably too late for many, for reasons medical and sociological.

The medical reason is simple - if you get your first shot today, it's 3 to 5 weeks and potentially a second shot before you become fully immunized. Given the rate of spread in the US hotspots and the logistics of life (people aren't going to drop everything and run to a pharmacy today) many people are going to get infected before immunization kicks in.

The sociological reason is less simple but sadder. Many of the Fake News crowd are heavily emotionally invested in their stance. The book 1984 to the contrary notwithstanding, if you've been beating one drum for months, suddenly beating another drum does not cause immediate change. Most of the Fake News crowd will find a different source of information that tells them what they want to hear.

Alas, many of the unvaccinated will get sick and die before this thing is over.
chris_gerrib: (Me 2)
The Internet continues to provide things to point at and ridicule blog posts to discuss. In my Navy days, it would have been called a "target-rich environment."

Today's target is a blog posting over at Wile E. Coyote, SuperGenius (Just ask him, he'll tell you) site. Reacting to a news article that the US sent small numbers of troops to NATO-ally Lithuania, an act that should be no more controversial then sending troops to Arizona, he is concerned that the neo-cons are trying to "goad" Russia into war. Ignoring the fact that sending troops to an ally is in no way goading, herewith was my response (Google the facts yourself, I'm not doing your research for you):

the US is under Article 5 obligated to treat an attack on one member nation as an attack on the US and "assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force."

We are also obligated to "consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

In short, by law, if Lithuania feels threatened, we're required to listen to them, and if they get attacked by nuclear, conventional or unconventional means we're required to defend them. And Lithuania feels threatened enough to re-institute the military draft in 2015.

Our other options are 1) kick the Baltic States out of NATO (which actually requires NATO approval) or 2) withdraw from NATO, which requires a 1-year notice.

What Obama is hoping to do is to suggest to Putin that taking these states won't be as easy as rolling into Crimea was. Aiding him in this effort is the great reduction in the size of the post Cold War Russian Army.

The Western Military District, responsible for the initial attack, has three "Armies" but these "Armies" are each of ~2 division equivalent. (The Russian Army is moving from a divisional to a brigade equivalent, and for example 6th Guard Army is by brigade but 1st Tank is still in 2 divisions.)

Putin doesn't have a million men to send, he's got more like 400,000, of which the approximately 80,000 airborne troops are at NATO standard. The rest are 2-year conscripts.
chris_gerrib: (Me 2)
These would both be a lot funnier if they weren't true.

1) I’m not Sith, I’m Alt-Jedi, clarifies Darth Vader.

2) The truth about the McDonald's hot coffee lawsuit:
chris_gerrib: (Me)
Yesterday I had some fun with the latest SFWA controversy. Today via Jay Lake I see this article: Welfare State: Washington's Republican counties depend on Western Washington's money. How can they survive the state budget cuts they demand?

The gist of the article is that the deeply-Republican counties of Washington state are heavily-subsidized by the tax dollars flowing from the Democratic cities. This is not unique to Washington state - most rural counties in most states are subsidized by cities. Nor is it unique that these very counties decry "government spending" and "socialism."

How are these two thoughts linked? Rational thinking, or the lack thereof. In SFWA's case, the petitioners claim a First Amendment right to hijack an association's trade journal for purposes not amenable to the majority of members. In Washington state, rural Republicans demand budget cuts that somehow won't hurt them. It's magical thinking, not rational thinking.
chris_gerrib: (Default)
Like the label on the tin says:

1) Ever wonder why those Nigerian 419 scams are so poorly written? Well, this guy has the answer. (tl;dr = "That's the point," he replied [about the scams]. "The idea is to get you to give them access to your credit card and bank account. Someone with an I.Q. over 30 is not going to give them that. It's a waste of time to start a correspondence with someone who isn't really, really stupid.")

2) Found via the Internet - the profession of Knocker-upper. No, it's not somebody who gets people pregnant - it's somebody who knocks on your door to wake you up in the morning.

3) Charles Sheehan-Miles announces that his latest opus, A Song For Julia, is now available for purchase.
chris_gerrib: (Default)
Two instances of sheer stupidity to start the work week:

1) Rand Simberg wonders why we didn't help the consulate being attacked in Benghazi. Ignoring the fact that we did send a quick-reaction team, the armchair generals there in comments are busily hatching schemes to carpet-bomb a two-mile radius around the safe house with whatever F-18s happen to be on alert at Sigonella. Some other questions:
  • How was the F-18 supposed to communicate with the consulate?
  • If the F-18 can’t communicate with the consulate, how can it suppress fire? For all the F-18 can tell, the people shooting are Americans.
  • Are the (unspecified) commandos sitting at Sigonella on a 15-minute alert? If they’re not, then it will take some time to round them up from beds or the local bars to even get them in the air.
  • Do the commandos know where the US safe house is? Do they have a way to communicate with the people at the safe house? Again, absent that, how do you avoid a “friendly fire” incident?


2) In another Rand Simberg Point of Stupidity, he wonders how rising gas prices can be a sign of an improving economy? To which I hearken back to the record high gas prices of 2008.
chris_gerrib: (Default)
Winston Churchill is supposed to have said that "a lie will get halfway around the world before the truth gets its shoes tied." Nowhere is this more true then on the Internet. A certain Libertarian of my acquaintance sent me to this link: Wisconsin Judge Rules No Right to Own a Cow or Drink Its Milk. He was in high dungeon over "tyranny."

Well, this didn't pass the smell test, so I used my critical thinking skills and Googled "Mark and Petra Zinniker" (the losers in the case) and found out that:

1) They were running a dairy farm, providing "owners" of cows raw milk from "their" cow. [It's not at all clear how much "ownership" the absentee owners really had, if any.]

2) In September, more than 30 people from Walworth, Waukesha and Racine counties were diagnosed with a bacterial infection from consuming raw milk traced to the [Zinniker] farm. The majority were children, and one was hospitalized.

3) The ruling actually said (PDF), that:
A) The cases cited by the Zinnikers didn't prove their point
B) The whole issue was irrelevant because the Zinnikers weren't in trouble over their cow, but over running a dairy farm (emphasis in original)
C) So the judge was not going to rule in their favor.

In short, the whole premise of the original post was wrong. Yet links to it are the entire first two pages of the Google search.
chris_gerrib: (Default)
I haven't been watching that much of the Olympics, but I have been catching a lot of curling. Now, my limit of knowledge about that sport is "the rock closest to the bulls-eye wins," but I've been enjoying the coverage. I find it oddly calming - a simple sport that probably started over beers out behind some tavern.

This calming effect is good. Over at The Usual Suspects, they are arguing that banning DDT in the US is part of a Green Genocide. The discussion thread there is typical as well; people not smart enough to stay at a Holiday Inn Express and whose expertise consists of once stepping on a bug arguing about "leftist conspiracies." (For the record: DDT is not only not banned, but recommended by the World Health Organization for use in malaria-endemic countries.)

In other calming, or maybe heartwarming, news, Diveheart, a foundation ran by a local Rotarian, is featured in The Miami Herald for the good work they are doing with injured veterans. I am always pleased to see charities I support getting some good press.

Lastly, the son of a co-worker is leaving today for study abroad in South Korea. He will be blogging about it here, and has already got some content up. I look forward to reading about his exploits.
chris_gerrib: (Default)
So, over at Simberg's Flying Circus, they are arguing that adjustments applied to the raw temperature data at Darwin, Australia, prove that Soylent Green is People! climate change is a hoax. To say that their are a number of problems with this logic is somewhat of an understatement.

First, finding one "bad" record out of thousands doesn't really invalidate anything. Second, as discussed here, the analysis of the data is flawed at best. Third, as discussed here by an actual climatologist, the history of the Darwin station in particular is problematic. Fourth, the lack of data points in general for northern Australia is a problem - as it happens the only legitimate one.

But here's the real issue. To restate the original rule: The problem with stupid people is that it takes an enormous amount of time and effort to refute their stupidity. Therefore, most people don't bother - so the stupidity just keeps getting repeated with no response from any smart people. And therefore the semi-smart people believe it.

So now, instead of discussing what to do about a warming climate, time and effort must be diverted to arguing about one data point in a sea of data points. You wonder why climatologists get snippy with and about their critics?

ETA Do climatologists falsify their data? No.
chris_gerrib: (Me)
Yesterday was devoured by locusts, and then I got into an argument over at Simberg's Flying Circus, but I repeat myself.

It was the typical argument - Rand supporting Jonah Goldberg's alternate history novel book Liberal Fascism and me pointing out that the Emperor (Goldberg) had no clothes. In the spirit of John Scalzi, let me re-post this little comment on the thread, slightly edited for this blog:

In general, in debating "Liberal Fascism" I feel like the guy trying to give a serious lecture on astronomy and some dudes in the back are cracking Beavis and Butthead jokes about Uranus. Embarrassed, but not for my actions. Rather, embarrassed that a bunch of seemingly-intelligent people have fallen for something only marginally slicker than a Nigerian 401 scam, AKA Goldberg’s book.

Seriously, if a guy with no training or background in investing wrote a book that said you could make 20% returns regardless of the market, wouldn’t you at least insist on some rigorous proof? But here some dude writes a book that attempts to reverse 60 years of history and y’all lap it up like frat boys standing around a free beer keg.

Lastly, I’m not arguing to convince Rand. He is supremely confident in his own correctness. Rather, I’m making a case for the people who may lack Rand’s certitude. That case is that the facts are not as Rand and Goldberg present them.


It's the trouble with stupid, episode 5,425.
chris_gerrib: (Default)
Profound thought of the day, from MWT (from a comment on Stonekettle Station):

The problem with stupid people is that it takes an enormous amount of time and effort to refute their stupidity. Therefore, most people don't bother - so the stupidity just keeps getting repeated with no response from any smart people. And therefore the semi-smart people believe it.

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