Private Mars Rocket II

As reported pretty much everywhere, The Kerch Bridge, pride of Russia and the most secure route into Crimea from Russia, got hit with some kind of large bomb over the weekend. The bridge is badly damaged - most importantly for Russia's war effort, it's unclear as to the health of the railroad portion of that bridge.

Russia's response to that incident came today. They fired a large number of cruise missiles into Ukraine, aiming some at electrical infrastructure and some at apparently random civilian targets. The explicit explanation for these attacks was to punish Ukraine for crossing a Russian red line. This explanation was gleefully applauded by Russia's defenders, including Wily Coyote, International Super Genius. Said genius also expects Russia to, Any Day Now, expand their war by attacking NATO. (With whose army and how said army would do any better against NATO then Ukraine is unclear. But then, in Coyote-world, Ukraine is still losing the war.)

The link to domestic violence is this. In domestic violence situations, if the victim fights back, then they must be punished even more vigorously by the abuser. The link between that behavior and Ukraine is clear - Ukraine is resisting and therefore must be punished.

In both cases, this punishment rarely works. Once the victim has decided to fight back, they will continue to do so until they can't.

So, I've seen on various pro-Russian sites a tendency to describe Ukraine as "Banderstan." I didn't know why. Now I do. A Ukrainian figure of the WWII era who went by the name Bander fought at various times with the Germans and against the Communists. The history is complex - read the whole thing.

There's a saying that history doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes. I've made some predictions based on that, in a series of posts the rest of this century, where I say the 21st rhymes with the 19th century. Here's another such rhyme - Napoleon III and Putin.

Napoleon III was the nephew of the more famous Napoleon Bonaparte. His real first name was Charles, but he used an outsized ego and his family history to become Emperor of France on a platform of "make France great again." (No apologies to any recent politician.) As part of that plan, in 1862 he embarked on the Second French intervention in Mexico.

The details of how and why said intervention came to be aren't important, although I found a fascinating bit of history on the Duke of Moctezuma de Tultengo, a descendent of the last Aztec emperor who is a current Spanish noble, while researching this. The basic thrust of the Intervention was for Napoleon and the Mexican nobility to install an emperor to rule Mexico and cooperate with France. There was a long war, in which France and the Imperials won some battles but never scored a knockout blow. France, bloodied and broke, withdrew, then got their asses kicked in the Franco-Prussian War.

If you assume Putin, a former KGB agent, is playing the Napoleon III role, the parallels with the current situation are obvious. It's also looking like a repeat of the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan - wars in which a conventional force may take territory but get bled to death.

For the record and so I may refer to them later, my thoughts on the situation in the Ukraine.

First, there is no moral, legal or ethical reason for Russia to invade Ukraine. The "republics" Putin recognized are creatures of Russia, created by Putin to weaken Ukraine. They are not only not under any threat but are in fact causing threats, and Russian "peacekeepers" are not keeping peace but threatening war.

Second, although Putin needs to be punished, I am not in favor of going to war to do so. Arming Ukrainians, yes. Sanctions, yes. War, either ground combat or some "no-fly zone" (which is an act of war) - no.

Third, we as the West need to assume that Putin is a clear and present danger. Whether he's crafty as a fox or high on his own supply I don't know, but we can't assume this will be the last bite of the apple. We need to move significant heavy forces to NATO now, move them as far east as we can, and expect to be there for years. If Finland and Sweden want to join NATO, get them in and integrated as rapidly as possible.

Fourth, we as Americans need to recognize that we will inevitably be drawn into any long-duration war in Europe. The US was created in large part as a result of the Seven Years War. We got drawn into the Napoleonic Wars (we call our part the War of 1812). We got drawn into both World Wars. We have a choice - sit back fat, dumb and happy until we get sucked into a war and scramble, or try and prevent that war while ensuring should one come we are in a better situation.